Crypto Market Update: Declines as Expected (Bitcoin Price Analysis) – Blockonomi


Over the weekend the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap has increased and reached $125,184,000,000 at its highest point on Saturday, breaking out from the symmetrical triangle from the upside. But since the evaluation reached those levels it started decreasing steadily until yesterday when it came to $124,377,000,000 from where it started decreasing fast as it came down to $119,575,161,000 in only one hour and a half.

  • Market Cap: $119,683,316,749
  • 24h Vol: $15,397,119,448
  • BTC Dominance: 52.4%

From there a recovery attempt has been made but as the evaluation barely exceeded the prior high, a lower low was established today, indicating further weakness as the evaluation came to down to $118,804,000,000 at its lowest point today.

The market is in red with an average percentage of change among top 100 coins ranging around 0.6%.  Among top 10 coins, the only one which is currently in green is Tron with an increase of 6.46% while other gainers are like TenX is in double digits as it increased by 28.69% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s market dominance has been still hovering around the same levels around 52.4%



BTC/USD

On yesterday’s open the price of Bitcoin was $3783 and from there the price was declining steadily until it came down to $3768 which was on the first half of the day, but since it came to those levels the price started falling down fast and came to $3570 in just one hour.

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that my Elliott Wave projection has been confirmed as the expected Y wave from a Minute degree count developed to the upside but as it was the ending of a correction a further depreciation in price occurred. The price has fallen below the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the minor horizontal support at around $3630 (interrupted purple lower line).

The price is currently in a range much like it was on the 4th wave of a Minuette count from when the price of Bitcoin fell below 0.786 Fibonacci level which is the Y wave from the Minor WXYXZ out of which the current move is the last wave Z.

Zooming out on the hourly chart again I have labeled the fractals that I am seeing. F1 is the first fractal, F2 is the second the F3 is the current. 

The first fractal the same as the second, but the third is the same as the overlapping point (green area) of the prior two, which is why now if the fractality is respected we are going to see the price fall again as the 5th Minuette move to the downside should develop after which another correction will occur much like it did two prior times (purple area), and will most likely continue for another low afterward.

Zooming into the 15 min chart you can see that the range in which the price is currently is most likely another correction before another drop in price. This is also pointed out by the market fractality as the 15 min chart resembles the hourly chart.

The price target for the expected 5th wave would be at the 0.236 Fibonacci level, but the target price for the end of the Minor WXYXZ correction would be at the horizontal support level around $3367.

Conclusion

After this decrease ends and the price of Bitcoin ends its current Minor WXYXZ correction I would be expecting another increase like we have seen from 15th to 24th of December. If we project the length of that increase to the expected target for the Z wave we come up with the target that exceeds the downtrend support line (bold black line), which was broken on 20th of November and was well respected since the price came two times and was rejected by it as it now serves as strong resistance.

This is why I don’t believe that the expected increase is going above it, but rather it will most likely going to retest it again and be rejected which would result in a lower low on the 4-hour chart for the price of Bitcoin.

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